Sweat The Guru’s UFC Picks
I’ve been watching UFC for years now, and there’s nothing more fun than getting a good sweat on the fights – all while punishing the sportsbooks. On this page, you’ll find my free picks for the upcoming fights as well as the latest UFC betting lines (which are automatically updated every hour).
UFC 250: Nunes vs Spencer (Saturday June 6th @ 7:00pm PDT)
The UFC’s Las Vegas APEX center will host a much hyped title fight for women’s featherweight Amanda Nunes. She takes on Felicia Spencer in the main event of a stacked card. I personally cannot wait to see the co-main between Raphael Assunção and Cody Garbrandt. There are going to be some fireworks!
How to watch: prelims air on ESPN+ and the Main Card will take place on ESPN+ PPV (sign up for ESPN+ here).
Women’s Featherweight Championship Match
Amanda Nunes is scheduled to defend her Women’s Featherweight Championship in the main-event of UFC 250, against Felicia Spencer. Nunes is coming as a huge favorite into this fight, but Felicia Spencer is not exactly an easy nut to crack.
This is quite an uncomfortable fight for bettors. We have a huge favorite in Amanda Nunes, and there is no value in placing a bet on her at these odds. On the other hand, while I believe that Spencer is a better fighter than the bookies give her credit, it’s also hard to pick someone to beat Nunes. The current champion is 12-1 in her UFC career, and steamrolled almost everyone that came into her path, since she joined Dana White’s company. She defeated Ronda Rousey in her career, and Cris Cyborg as well. It’s important to remember that Cyborg administered Felicia the only loss of her MMA career, so far.
I believe that Amanda is going to defend her title in this one, but she is not going to have an easy mission. As a bettor, you should probably shift your attention towards prop bets for this particular fight. I personally like this one to go the distance, and Amanda Nunes to win by decision.
The Guru’s Pick: Amanda Nunes by decision
In our co-main event of the evening, Raphael Assunção is scheduled to face Cody Garbrandt, in what should be a great fight. Garbrandt is coming into this one as the favorite in the bookies eyes, at -144, with Raphael being the underdog at +125.
While it’s probably going to be a great fight to watch, it’s a hard fight to make a prediction for it. Cody Garbrandt should theoretically take this one against a veteran Assunção, who simply didn’t look great in his last couple of fights. On the other hand, Garbrandt is a very inconsistent fighter and you never know what version of him you are going to get in the octagon. He’s on a 3-fight losing streak, and his chin is very questionable at this point. I’m still going to pick him.
This is a “must-win” fight for Cody and I expect him to bring his A-game for this event. I wouldn’t be surprised if Assunção would win, but Cody shouldn’t lose this fight in theory, and I will stick with that.
The Guru’s Pick: Cody Garbrandt
Aljamain Sterling is going to take on Cory Sandhagen at UFC 250. This fight is basically a pick’em in the bookies eyes, with Sterling being priced at -110, and Sandhagen being priced at -110 as well.
What I love about pick’em fights is that you have betting value on both sides. I know that Sandhagen is a very exciting fighter, who showed tons of potential in his UFC career, so far. On the other hand, I don’t believe that he defeated very good opponents, or in-form fighters. Sterling on the other hand is on a 4-fights win streak, faced tougher competition than Sandhagen, and also has the experience on his side
Sandhagen’s takedown defense is quite bad, and Sterling is great at getting takedowns. He is also a great fighter on his feet, so I view Sterling as the better overall fighter and I expect him to take this one.
The Guru’s Pick: Aljamain Sterling
Anthony Rocco Martin
In the second fight of the main card Neil Magny is scheduled to face Anthony Rocco Martin. Magny is the slight favorite in the bookies eyes at -144, with Martin being priced at +125.
I expect to see a great fight here. It is a bit difficult to pick a winner, because both guys have a strong case to bag a win in this one. I want to highlight a stat though, that I believe it’s quite important when considering the winner for this one. Martin is not a great finisher. While he can submit Magny, I don’t see him doing it, as I believe Magny is actually the better technical fighter between them two.
I also don’t see Martin knocking Magny out, because he doesn’t have a good history of finishing his opponent that way. What’s important to consider is that Magny is 9-1 in terms of fights that reached a decision in his UFC career so far. Considering the fact that I expect this one to go to the wire, I have to side with Magny in this fight. He knows how to get those decision wins.
The Guru’s Pick: Neil Magny
We start the main card with a bantamweight division fight, between veteran Eddie Wineland and young up-and-comer Sean O’Malley. The former is the second biggest favorite on this card, at -400, with Wineland being priced by the bookies at +300.
Are the bookies underrating Wineland, here? Yes, for sure. Despite O’Malley being a great prospect, I don’t believe that there is such a big difference in skill between him and Wineland. I expect this to be a tough test for O’Malley, but at the same time, I also expect him to pull through. He is undefeated in his MMA career so far and this is an important fight for him. If he wishes his fighting career to be successful down the line, O’Malley has to win this one.
I can only see Wineland having a chance to take this, if he manages to knock O’Malley out. Unfortunately for him, I don’t expect that to happen, so I will back the younger fighter here.
The Guru’s Pick: Sean O’Malley
We’ve got an exciting featherweight fight on our hands in the preliminaries. Alex Caceres is scheduled to face Chase Hopper in this one, with Hopper being priced at -144, and Caceres at +125.
I wouldn’t be fooled by Hopper’s look. He might be a skinny guy at first glance, but he looked great in his UFC debut, and I believe he has a bright future ahead of him in this company. Now, Caceres is a veteran of the division, with 20 UFC fights under his belt (10-10 w/l record). While I wouldn’t count the underdog out of this one, I believe Hopper is actually quite a bad match-up for him.
Considering the hopes Dana White has for Chase, I don’t think he would have been booked against Caceres, if the UFC thought he had a very good chance to win. Based on his debut, I say that this is definitely a winnable fight for him.
The Guru’s Pick: Chase Hopper
Ian Heinisch is scheduled to take on Gerald Meerschaert at UFC 250. Heinisch is viewed as the favorite by the bookies, being priced at -120, with Meerschaert at +105.
I have great expectations from this fight. Both of them can put on a show in the octagon, and I don’t expect to see a bad fight between those two.
Meerschaert has more experience as an MMA fighter, but I see Heinisch as a better overall fighter in this one. He is great on his feet, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he would knock GM3 out in this one. He lost against Brunson, and Akhmedov in his last 2 fights, so I believe we should expect Heinisch to bounce back in fashion.
The Guru’s Pick: Ian Heinisch
We should have a great fight on our hands, when Cody Stamman is going to face Brian Kelleher at the UFC’s APEX, in Las Vegas. Stamman opened as the favorite here at -250, with Kelleher being the underdog in the eyes of the bookies, at +190.
I have to agree with the oddsmakers for this one. Cody Stamman looked great in his UFC career so far, as he collected 5 wins and one draw, in his UFC career so far. I believe he is a better fighter, when compared to Kelleher. He has a wrestling background, and can execute some great takedowns. On the top of that, he is also an above average boxer, so he is dangerous in more than one category.
Kelleher is a veteran and he definitely has a chance to win this one. He’s on a 2 fights win streak and will have opportunities to grab the win here. Still, Stamman is a more versatile fighter, he is younger, and I see him as the overall better fighter.
The Guru’s Pick: Cody Stamman
In our first fight of the preliminaries card, Charles Byrd is going to face Maki Pitolo. Charles Byrd is the favorite right now, with the oddsmakers pricing him at -175, and Maki Pitolo at +138.
I believe that this fight is going to be more competitive than the bookies see it. Charles Byrd didn’t look good in his UFC career so far, and he’s only 1-2 since he joined Dana White’s company. Maki Pitolo also lost his only fight from the UFC, so it’s obvious that we are not talking about the best fighters of the division, here. But there’s a catch. Byrd is 36 years old, and he is a fighter that Pitolo can theoretically beat.
Taking Byrd’s age into consideration, and the fact that this is a “must-win” fight for Pitolo, I will have to side with the underdog.
The Guru’s Pick: Maki Pitolo
In our second fight of the early preliminaries, veteran fighter Jussier Formiga is going to take on Alex Perez. Despite his experience, Formiga is actually seen as the underdog by the oddsmakers. He’s at +125 right now, with Alex Perez being the favorite at -155.
This is an interesting fight to cap. Formiga has lost his last two fights, so he definitely needs a “bounce back” win in this one. On the other hand, Perez is an exciting young fighter, who only lost one match in his UFC career so far. That loss came against Joseph Benavidez.
My problem with Perez before this fight is that he simply didn’t face very good competition in the UFC so far. While Formiga is not as good as Benavidez, he is better than most of the guys Perez faced. The veteran is a tricky fighter, who is excellent on the ground and can grind his way to a decision win. I’m not sold on Perez’s ground game, so I will have to pick Formiga in this one.
The Guru’s Pick: Jussier Formiga
Alonzo Menifield is going to take on Devin Clark in the first fight of the early preliminaries. Menifield has opened as the favorite in the eyes of the bookies, and is at -215 now at William Hill.
I don’t think that we are going to see an underdog upsetting the favorite in this one. Alonzo Menifield is undefeated in his career so far, and he looks like a mismatch on paper, for Devin Clark. The former mostly wins his fights by getting takedowns, but I don’t see him getting Menifield to the ground in this one. Clark also has quite a weak chin, and that can be a problem against a powerful fighter like Alonzo Menifield.
The Guru’s Pick: Alonzo Menifield
Latest UFC Betting Odds
(betting lines are updated every hour)
Why do I only show the UFC betting lines from Bovada and 5 Dimes? Simple, these sportsbooks have been around the longest and are trusted to actually pay out when you win. Could you find a big sign-up bonus somewhere else? Sure, but what’s the point if you’re betting with a sketchy operation that won’t pay out your winnings. Bovada and 5 Dimes have been around for over 10 years each and have a reputation as stand up sportsbooks that you can trust. They are where I would personally recommend you take your business.